Alright, let’s shake off those winter blues and spring into the world of mortgages! 🌷 As the first week of May blossoms around us, bringing warmer weather and fresh starts, it’s also a great time to think about new beginnings in your homeownership journey. Whether you’re dreaming of a sun-drenched new house or looking to refinance and save some green, we’re here to help your financial garden grow. And speaking of growth and good times, get ready to mark your calendars because yesterday, May 4th, we got to celebrate a day that’s truly out of this world…
May the Fourth be with you! 😉 Join us as we navigate the mortgage galaxy, one helpful tip at a time.
let’s look at the economic calendar for the week of May 5th – May 9th, 2025. Here are some significant reports to watch out for:
- Employment Situation Report (Non-Farm Payrolls): Typically released on the first Friday of the month, this report is a major indicator of the health of the labor market. It includes the unemployment rate, the number of jobs added or lost, and average hourly earnings. Strong job growth can signal a healthy economy, potentially leading to higher inflation concerns and influencing the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, which in turn can affect mortgage rates. Weak job growth could suggest an economic slowdown. Â
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): This report, usually released mid-month, measures the change in prices paid by urban consumers for a basket of goods and services. It’s a key indicator of inflation. Higher-than-expected inflation can lead to concerns about rising interest rates, potentially pushing mortgage rates up. Lower inflation could have the opposite effect. Â
- Producer Price Index (PPI): Released around the same time as CPI, the PPI measures the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. It can be a leading indicator of consumer price inflation. Â
- Retail Sales: This report provides data on the total receipts at stores that sell merchandise and related services to final consumers. Strong retail sales indicate consumer spending is healthy, which can support economic growth but also potentially contribute to inflation. Â
- Consumer Sentiment (University of Michigan): Released towards the end of the month (preliminary) and the final reading a couple of weeks later, this survey measures consumer confidence levels. Higher confidence often correlates with increased spending, while lower confidence can signal a potential pullback in economic activity. Â
- Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS): This report provides data on job openings, hires, and separations. A high number of job openings suggests strong labor demand, which can influence wage growth and inflation. Â
How These Reports Might Affect the Mortgage Market:
- Strong Economic Data (Strong jobs report, high CPI/PPI, strong retail sales, high consumer sentiment, high job openings): These indicators collectively suggest a strong economy with potential inflationary pressures. This scenario could lead the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish stance on monetary policy, potentially keeping interest rates, including mortgage rates, at higher levels or even pushing them up.
- Weak Economic Data (Weak jobs report, low CPI/PPI, weak retail sales, low consumer sentiment, low job openings): Conversely, data indicating a slowing economy or weakening inflation could lead to a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, potentially resulting in lower interest rates, including mortgage rates.
- Mixed Data: If the reports present a mixed picture, the impact on the mortgage market might be less clear and could lead to some volatility as investors try to interpret the overall economic outlook.
It’s important to remember that the impact of these reports can be influenced by market expectations and other global economic events.
Keep an eye on these releases!
-tom