Spring has sprung, the birds are singing, and the housing market is starting to bloom! 🌷 As we roll into the second week of May, the real estate landscape is looking as fresh as a daisy. Whether you’re planting roots in your first home or cultivating a new chapter with a refinance, we’re here to help your mortgage journey blossom. And speaking of things that make us smile, get ready to loosen those belts because next week, on May 13th, we get to celebrate the deliciousness that is National Hummus Day! 😋 Join us as we dip into the latest mortgage insights and spread some knowledge, one helpful tip at a time.
let’s look at the economic calendar for the week of May 12th – May 16th, 2025. Here are some significant reports to keep an eye on:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): As mentioned previously, this report, typically released mid-month, is a key indicator of inflation. The May reading will give us an updated look at price pressures in the economy. Higher-than-expected inflation could lead to concerns about rising interest rates and potentially impact mortgage rates. Â
- Retail Sales: This report will provide data on consumer spending for April. Strong retail sales suggest a healthy economy but can also contribute to inflationary pressures, influencing the Federal Reserve’s stance and potentially mortgage rates.
- Housing Starts and Building Permits: These reports for April will offer insights into the state of the housing market. Strong housing starts indicate increased construction activity, while building permits are a leading indicator of future construction. These figures can influence the overall economic outlook and indirectly affect mortgage rates. Â
- Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: These reports for April will show the output of factories, mines, and utilities. Strong industrial production indicates economic growth, which can sometimes lead to higher interest rates. Capacity utilization measures how much of the available industrial capacity is being used. Â
- University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Preliminary): The preliminary reading for May will give an early indication of consumer confidence levels. Changes in consumer sentiment can influence spending and economic activity, potentially having a ripple effect on interest rates. Â
Potential Impact on the Mortgage Market:
- Strong Economic Data (Higher CPI, strong Retail Sales, strong Housing Starts, strong Industrial Production, higher Consumer Sentiment): If these reports collectively point to a robust economy with persistent inflation, it could reinforce the idea that the Federal Reserve will need to maintain a tighter monetary policy. This could lead to stable or potentially rising mortgage rates.
- Weak Economic Data (Lower CPI, weak Retail Sales, weaker Housing Starts, weaker Industrial Production, lower Consumer Sentiment): Conversely, data suggesting a slowing economy or easing inflation could prompt the Federal Reserve to consider a more dovish stance, potentially leading to stable or lower mortgage rates.
- Mixed Data: As is often the case, the data may present a mixed picture, making the direction of mortgage rates less certain and potentially leading to market volatility.
Keep an eye on these releases next week for a better understanding of the economic trends and their potential impact on the mortgage market!
-tom