Hello, May! As the flowers bloom and the days get longer, we’re also celebrating a very important day – Memorial Day. 🇺🇸 This isn’t just about delicious BBQs and the unofficial start of summer (though we love those too!). It’s a profound time to honor the brave men and women who’ve made the ultimate sacrifice for our freedoms. Beyond the solemn reflection, this long weekend also kicks off a significant boost to our economy – think travel, retail therapy, and all sorts of summer fun! ☀️
And just like Memorial Day marks a new season of activity, it’s also a perfect moment to think about planting your own roots. Whether you’re dreaming of a backyard perfect for those summer cookouts or looking to refinance and free up some cash for your next adventure, the mortgage market is moving. So, let’s dive into this week’s economic landscape and see what’s shaping your path to homeownership! 🏡
Okay, let’s look at the economic calendar for the week of May 26th – May 30th, 2025.
It’s important to note that Monday, May 26th, is Memorial Day, a federal holiday in the U.S. This means government offices and financial markets will be closed, so there won’t be any major economic data releases on that day.
For the rest of the week, here are some significant reports to keep an eye on:
- Consumer Confidence (Conference Board): Usually released mid-week, this report measures consumer attitudes and buying intentions. A higher confidence level can indicate stronger consumer spending, which is a major driver of economic growth.
- Durable Goods Orders: This report provides data on new orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods (products expected to last three years or more), such as cars, appliances, and machinery. It’s a key indicator of manufacturing activity and business investment.
- Pending Home Sales: This report measures housing contract signings, providing a forward-looking indicator for existing home sales. A strong reading suggests future activity in the housing market.
- GDP Growth Rate (Second Estimate for Q1): This is the second estimate for the Gross Domestic Product in the first quarter. Any significant revision from the advance estimate can move markets as it provides a more refined picture of overall economic growth.
- Jobless Claims: The weekly jobless claims report will continue to provide a real-time pulse on the labor market.
Potential Impact on the Mortgage Market:
- Strong Economic Data (e.g., higher Consumer Confidence, strong Durable Goods Orders, positive GDP revision, low Jobless Claims, strong Pending Home Sales): If these reports collectively point to a robust economy, it could lead to increased concerns about inflation. This might prompt the Federal Reserve to maintain a tighter monetary policy or even consider future interest rate hikes, potentially resulting in stable or rising mortgage rates.
- Weak Economic Data (e.g., lower Consumer Confidence, weak Durable Goods Orders, negative GDP revision, rising Jobless Claims, weak Pending Home Sales): Conversely, data suggesting a slowing economy could lead to expectations of the Federal Reserve becoming more accommodative. This scenario could lead to stable or potentially lower mortgage rates.
Remember that market reactions can also depend on how these numbers compare to economists’ expectations. It’s always about the “surprise” factor!
-tom